Team Europe Initiative sur les Chaînes de Valeur sans Déforestation

The market conditions that helped drive sustainable palm oil over the past two decades are changing. The Global Palm Oil Outlook 2025 finds that future demand growth is increasingly concentrated in India and China, domestic biofuel programmes, and emerging industrial uses, while growth in Europe and other markets that have historically driven sustainability demand remains comparatively limited. As sustainability incentives become more uneven across end markets, there is a growing risk that demand for verified sustainable palm oil grows more slowly than overall demand, contributing to the emergence of a two-tier market: one characterised by strong sustainability requirements and verified supply chains, and another serving high-growth demand markets where sustainability requirements play a more limited role in shaping demand.
Future demand is increasingly concentrated outside the markets that helped establish certification, traceability, corporate commitments, and responsible sourcing as industry norms. Maintaining progress towards deforestation-free production, independent smallholder inclusion, and resilient landscapes will require sustainability incentives to remain relevant in the markets and sectors now shaping the sector’s trajectory.